As 2013 comes to an end, economists are predicting that the mortgage market in 2014 will be driven by home purchases and not refinancing. Home affordability is also expected to rise despite rising mortgage rates. These trends were predicted in Freddie Mac's latest Economic and Housing Market outlook.
"With the close of 2013 will also come a major transition in the housing finance industry," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist and vice president. "For the first time since 2000, we're going to see the mortgage market dominated by purchase activity as the refinance share drops below 50%."
Meanwhile, Freddie Mac expects interest rates to steadily rise throughout 2014, with the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage ending the year near 5%.
Some of the other predictions are as follows:
(1) Housing starts are projected to rise to a pace of 1.15 million units next year. A situation that will in turn create roughly 700,000 new construction jobs, the GSE said in its forecast.
(2) Home sales will remain somewhat restricted by the tighter inventory that is being experienced in many markets, with sales expected to rise between 5% and 6% from 2013 to 2014 according to Freddie Mac.
(3) Borrowers will also experience some positives in 2014, with home values continuing to rise at a more moderate pace of 5% to 6%.
Orawin Velz, an economist with Fannie Mae, believes the refinance market on average will make up 40% of all loan originations in 2014! Source: HousingWire
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